Study Finds Human Contribution to European Heatwave in 2003

A team of British scientists has developed a way to estimate the extent to which human-induced climate change affects the probability that aheatwave might occur in today's climate. Their conclusion: climate change has at least doubled the risk of a major heatwave in continental Europe.

Peter Stott of the UK Met Office's Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and colleagues compared two sets of simulated European summer temperatures from a climate model、one set that incorporated the effect of human contributors to climate change (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) and another that accounted only for natural influences on climate. They then calculated the change in risk of extreme heatwaves that can be attributed to the increase in greenhouse gases.

Stott and his colleagues compared the model's simulations with actual observed climate records to ensure that it accurately portrayed the natural variability of European summers、and their analysis allowed for uncertainties in the nature and extent of human-induced climate change.

Researchers estimate that the summer of 2003 was the hottest in Europe since at least the year 1500、leading to 22,000-35,000 heat-related deaths across the continent and more than $12 billion in crop losses.

資料來源：U.S. EPA、2004